- Main support tested three times at R$13.80-13.90, with volume 68% above average in support regions
- Critical resistance at R$16.50, rejected twice with decreasing volume (positive signal)
- Recent crossing of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (Golden Cross), formed on 03/24/2024, signaling potential trend change
- RSI (14) moving from oversold region (32) to neutrality (45), indicating momentum improvement
Investing in the Brazilian banking sector has always been a strategy considered by many investors, and Bradesco, as the second largest private bank in the country, frequently appears on the radar. In this article, we will deeply analyze whether it is worth buying Bradesco shares in the current scenario, considering fundamentals, perspectives and risks to help you make more informed decisions.
The Brazilian banking landscape in 2024: Accelerated transformation
The Brazilian banking sector is no longer the same as five years ago. Digitalization is not just a trend, but an unavoidable reality, with 68% of banking transactions already carried out through digital channels. In this new context, whether it’s worth buying Bradesco shares has become a strategic question for investors seeking exposure to Brazil’s second-largest private bank, representing 8.2% of the Ibovespa index with an average daily liquidity of R$450 million.
In April 2024, the Brazilian banking scenario presents specific contours: Selic rate at 10.75% after a cycle of 12 consecutive increases, persistent inflation at 4.2% per year, and projected economic growth of 2.3% for 2024. Pocket Option analysts have identified that Bradesco implemented three key strategies to face this environment: a 12% reduction in its physical network (428 branches closed since 2022), a 36% increase in technology investments, and aggressive expansion in the payroll loan segment (+18% in 12 months).
Bradesco’s financial radiography: Numbers that reveal trends
Bradesco’s recent financial results reveal clear patterns that directly impact the decision on whether it’s worth buying Bradesco shares in the current market moment.
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 (latest disclosure) | Variation (%) | Impact on shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Profit (R$ billions) | 21.1 | 22.4 | +6.2% | Positive – growth above inflation |
| ROE (%) | 16.8 | 17.2 | +0.4 p.p. | Moderate – marginal improvement in profitability |
| Credit Portfolio (R$ trillions) | 1.08 | 1.14 | +5.6% | Positive – sustainable expansion |
| Efficiency Ratio (%) | 43.4 | 41.8 | -1.6 p.p. | Very positive – savings of R$1.8 billion in costs |
| Delinquency +90 days (%) | 4.8 | 4.2 | -0.6 p.p. | Very positive – reduction of R$850 million in provisions |
These numbers show a bank in recovery after the difficult 2020-2022 triennium. The 0.6 percentage point improvement in delinquency represents savings of approximately R$850 million in provisions, directly impacting profit. The 5.6% growth in the credit portfolio, concentrated in less risky lines (real estate +14% and payroll loans +18%), reveals a calculated strategy of expansion with risk control.
Bradesco versus competitors: Who leads in 2024?
To contextualize Bradesco’s performance, we compared key indicators with its main competitors in the first quarter of 2024:
| Bank | ROE (%) | P/E Ratio | Dividend Yield (%) | Annual profit growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradesco | 17.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 |
| Itaú Unibanco | 19.8 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 8.7 |
| Santander Brasil | 15.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| Banco do Brasil | 21.2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 10.2 |
This comparison reveals that Bradesco occupies the third position in profitability among the four largest Brazilian banks. Its dividend yield of 5.4% (R$1.02 per share in the last 12 months) exceeds the sector average of 4.8%, representing a return 51% higher than the current savings account and 26% above the Treasury Selic. Pocket Option highlights this yield as a strong point for investors seeking consistent passive income in the Brazilian market.
Technical analysis of Bradesco shares: Identified entry and exit points
Bradesco’s preferred (BBDC4) and common (BBDC3) shares reveal specific technical patterns that can determine the ideal time to buy Bradesco shares with the best risk-return ratio.
In the last 12 months, BBDC4 formed a well-defined lateral channel, oscillating between R$13.80 and R$16.50. Analysis of the last 90 days reveals:
The identified technical patterns suggest a potentially favorable moment to buy Bradesco shares near the support of R$13.90, with stop loss adjusted at R$13.50 (-2.9%) and first target at R$15.20 (+9.3%), offering a risk-return ratio of 1:3.2. Pocket Option experts recommend staggered entries at levels R$14.20, R$14.00, and R$13.85 to dilute execution risk.
High probability chart patterns
Three specific chart patterns increase the probability of directional movements in Bradesco shares:
| Pattern | Implication | Historical probability of success | Appreciation potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double bottom at R$13.85 | Reversal from downtrend to uptrend in 3-5 weeks | 72% (based on the last 8 similar patterns) | +12% to +18% |
| Symmetrical triangle (convergence on 04/28) | Directional breakout by 05/15 | 83% probability of upside | +8% to +15% |
| Support at 200-day moving average | Maintenance of long-term trend | 91% effectiveness in the last 5 years | +6% to +10% in 30-45 days |
Fundamental analysis: Is it worth buying Bradesco shares based on fundamentals?
For medium and long-term investors, fundamental analysis is decisive. Bradesco’s indicators in April 2024 reveal specific signals:
- Current P/E of 6.8x is 20% below the historical average of 8.5x, indicating potential for revaluation of R$3.40 per share
- P/B of 1.2x represents a discount of 14.3% compared to the historical average of 1.4x
- Dividend Yield of 5.4% equals R$1.02 per share in the last 12 months, with a monthly distribution policy
- ROE of 17.2% exceeds the estimated cost of capital of 14.8%, generating positive economic value of 2.4 percentage points
These indicators, analyzed together with the perspective of 7.8% profit growth for 2024 (consensus of 14 analysts), suggest that buying Bradesco shares represents an opportunity for those seeking exposure to the Brazilian banking sector with a safety margin of approximately 18% relative to the estimated fair price (R$17.80).
| Indicator | Bradesco | Sector average | Difference (%) | Interpretation for investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8x | 7.2x | -5.6% | Moderate discount, revaluation potential |
| P/B | 1.2x | 1.4x | -14.3% | Significant discount relative to equity |
| Dividend Yield | 5.4% | 4.8% | +12.5% | Superior return in dividends (R$1.02 per share/year) |
| ROE | 17.2% | 16.5% | +4.2% | Slightly superior efficiency in generating profits |
The 5 pillars of Bradesco’s digital transformation: Measurable results
To determine if it’s worth buying Bradesco shares, it’s essential to evaluate how its digital transformation is generating concrete results. The bank invested R$7.8 billion in technology in 2023 (an increase of 36% compared to 2021), focusing on five strategic initiatives:
- Next: digital bank surpassed 12.7 million customers (41% growth in 12 months), with acquisition cost 78% lower than the traditional model
- BIA (Artificial Intelligence): processing 25 million monthly interactions, reduced average service time by 32% and saved R$235 million in operational costs
- Open Finance: developed 47 proprietary APIs with 8.3 million active consents, allowing acquisition of 325,000 new customers via open ecosystem
- inovaBRA: program connected the bank with 352 startups, implementing 83 solutions that generated R$420 million in new revenues
- Systems modernization: reduced overnight processing time by 42% and cut R$580 million in infrastructure costs
According to Pocket Option analysis, this transformation is already positively impacting operational efficiency, with the efficiency ratio improving from 43.4% to 41.8% in 12 months. Each percentage point represents approximate savings of R$1.1 billion annually, directly impacting profit and, consequently, the potential appreciation of shares.
| Digital Initiative | Investment (R$ millions) | Measurable Result | Annual Financial Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next (digital bank) | 1,850 | 12.7 million customers (+41% y.o.y.) | R$620 million in new revenues |
| BIA (Artificial Intelligence) | 980 | 25 million interactions/month (-32% in service time) | Savings of R$235 million |
| Open Finance | 730 | 8.3 million active consents | 325,000 new customers (R$180 million in revenues) |
| Partnerships with fintechs | 420 | 83 implemented solutions | R$420 million in new revenues |
How the Brazilian macroeconomy directly impacts Bradesco
For investors considering buying Bradesco shares, understanding the precise correlation between macroeconomic factors and the bank’s performance is fundamental:
The Selic effect on Bradesco’s margins
The Selic rate, currently at 10.75%, directly influences three components of Bradesco’s result. Each percentage point in the Selic represents an impact of approximately R$580 million on the quarterly result, distributed as follows:
| Interest Rate Scenario | Impact on Net Interest Margin | Impact on Delinquency | Net Effect on Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maintenance of Selic at 10.75% | Stability (+R$280 million/quarter) | Gradual reduction in delinquency (-0.2 p.p./quarter) | Positive of R$420 million/quarter |
| Reduction to 9.25% by December | Slight negative pressure (-R$150 million/quarter) | Acceleration in delinquency reduction (-0.4 p.p./quarter) | Positive of R$580 million/quarter |
| Increase to 12.25% (stress scenario) | Strong margin expansion (+R$420 million/quarter) | Increase in delinquency (+0.3 p.p./quarter) | Negative of R$180 million/quarter |
Besides interest rates, three other critical macroeconomic factors directly influence Bradesco’s performance:
- GDP Growth: each additional 1 percentage point in Brazilian GDP historically translates into a 2.7% expansion in Bradesco’s credit portfolio, adding approximately R$380 million to annual profit
- Inflation: IPCA above 5% pressures operational costs by approximately R$220 million per quarter, reducing margins
- Unemployment: each 1 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate improves delinquency by 0.18 percentage points, saving R$260 million in provisions annually
Specific strategies for investing in Bradesco shares in 2024
Based on the analyses presented, we identified four optimized strategies for different investor profiles interested in buying Bradesco shares:
| Investor Profile | Recommended Strategy | Suggested Allocation | Expected Return (12 months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Monthly accumulation focused on dividends: R$1,000 every 15th day, regardless of price | 3-5% of total assets | Dividends of 5.4% + potential appreciation of 8-12% |
| Moderate | Staggered purchases at supports: 30% at R$14.20, 30% at R$14.00, and 40% at R$13.85 | 5-10% of total assets | Dividends of 5.4% + potential appreciation of 15-20% |
| Aggressive | Leveraged purchase near main support with stop below R$13.60 | 10-15% of total assets | Dividends of 5.4% + potential appreciation of 20-25% |
| Trader | Swing trade operations between support (R$13.85) and first resistance (R$15.20) | 1-3% of assets per operation | Gains of 8-12% per cycle (estimate of 3-4 cycles/year) |
Pocket Option offers specific tools to implement these strategies, including price alerts for the key levels mentioned, return simulators with dividend reinvestment, and detailed analysis of quarterly results as soon as they are released, allowing tactical adjustments to the strategy according to the evolution of fundamentals.
For long-term investors, the strategy of scheduled monthly contributions (R$1,000/month for 5 years) in Bradesco shares would result in an estimated equity of R$83,450 considering reinvested dividends and average annual growth of 11.2%, according to projections based on historical performance adjusted to current perspectives.
5 specific risks for Bradesco and how the bank mitigates them
Before deciding if it’s worth buying Bradesco shares, it’s essential to understand the five main risks that the institution faces and its mitigation strategies:
- Digital competition: Bradesco loses 2.1% of its customer base annually to fintechs, but captured 3.7% of new customers via Next, resulting in a positive balance of 1.6%
- Sectoral delinquency: Exposure of R$86 billion to the real estate sector represents concentrated risk, mitigated by requiring 35% down payment and guarantees that cover 142% of the loan value
- Spread compression: Reduction of 0.8 percentage points in spreads in 12 months, compensated by a 12% increase in volume and an 8% reduction in fixed costs
- Structural rigidity: 78,000 employees and 2,850 branches represent high fixed costs, partially mitigated by closing 428 branches since 2022 and digitizing 64% of internal processes
- Currency exposure: 17% of international operations generate volatility in results, mitigated by a hedging policy that covers 85% of exposure
| Risk | Probability | Potential Impact | Mitigation Strategy | Mitigation Effectiveness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital disruption | High (80%) | -15% in customer base in 3 years | Next captured 12.7 million customers, compensating losses | High (75% of risk mitigated) |
| Economic recession | Moderate (35%) | +2.5 p.p. in delinquency | Provisioning of 218% and more conservative credit mix | Moderate (60% of risk mitigated) |
| Regulatory changes | High (90%) | -8% in service revenues | Development of 14 new unregulated revenue lines | Moderate (55% of risk mitigated) |
| Margin pressure | High (85%) | -0.8 p.p. in banking spread | Cut of R$2.3 billion in costs and volume increase | High (80% of risk mitigated) |
Conclusion: Is it worth buying Bradesco shares in 2024?
After a comprehensive analysis of the multiple factors that influence Bradesco, we conclude that its shares present a favorable risk-return ratio in the current scenario, particularly for three specific investor profiles.
Bradesco demonstrates five fundamental strengths: valuation 20% below historical average (P/E 6.8x vs. 8.5x), attractive dividend yield of 5.4% (R$1.02 per share annually), delinquency on a downward trajectory (4.2% and decreasing trend), digital transformation with measurable results (savings of R$1.1 billion in operational costs), and balanced exposure to sectors of the Brazilian economy with the greatest growth potential in 2024-2025.
For investors seeking income and moderate growth, buying Bradesco shares at current levels (R$14.00-R$14.50) represents an opportunity with significant safety margin. The recommended strategy combines regular contributions with taking advantage of corrections for accumulation at well-defined technical supports (R$13.80-R$13.90), aiming for a total return (dividends + appreciation) between 14% and 18% over the next 12 months.
Pocket Option provides specific tools for Brazilian investors interested in Bradesco shares, including personalized alerts for the mentioned technical levels (R$13.85, R$14.20, R$15.20, and R$16.50), return calculators with dividend reinvestment, and detailed analysis of quarterly results as soon as they are released, allowing tactical adjustments to the strategy according to the evolution of fundamentals.
The Brazilian banking landscape in 2024: Accelerated transformation
The Brazilian banking sector is no longer the same as five years ago. Digitalization is not just a trend, but an unavoidable reality, with 68% of banking transactions already carried out through digital channels. In this new context, whether it’s worth buying Bradesco shares has become a strategic question for investors seeking exposure to Brazil’s second-largest private bank, representing 8.2% of the Ibovespa index with an average daily liquidity of R$450 million.
In April 2024, the Brazilian banking scenario presents specific contours: Selic rate at 10.75% after a cycle of 12 consecutive increases, persistent inflation at 4.2% per year, and projected economic growth of 2.3% for 2024. Pocket Option analysts have identified that Bradesco implemented three key strategies to face this environment: a 12% reduction in its physical network (428 branches closed since 2022), a 36% increase in technology investments, and aggressive expansion in the payroll loan segment (+18% in 12 months).
Bradesco’s financial radiography: Numbers that reveal trends
Bradesco’s recent financial results reveal clear patterns that directly impact the decision on whether it’s worth buying Bradesco shares in the current market moment.
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 (latest disclosure) | Variation (%) | Impact on shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Profit (R$ billions) | 21.1 | 22.4 | +6.2% | Positive – growth above inflation |
| ROE (%) | 16.8 | 17.2 | +0.4 p.p. | Moderate – marginal improvement in profitability |
| Credit Portfolio (R$ trillions) | 1.08 | 1.14 | +5.6% | Positive – sustainable expansion |
| Efficiency Ratio (%) | 43.4 | 41.8 | -1.6 p.p. | Very positive – savings of R$1.8 billion in costs |
| Delinquency +90 days (%) | 4.8 | 4.2 | -0.6 p.p. | Very positive – reduction of R$850 million in provisions |
These numbers show a bank in recovery after the difficult 2020-2022 triennium. The 0.6 percentage point improvement in delinquency represents savings of approximately R$850 million in provisions, directly impacting profit. The 5.6% growth in the credit portfolio, concentrated in less risky lines (real estate +14% and payroll loans +18%), reveals a calculated strategy of expansion with risk control.
Bradesco versus competitors: Who leads in 2024?
To contextualize Bradesco’s performance, we compared key indicators with its main competitors in the first quarter of 2024:
| Bank | ROE (%) | P/E Ratio | Dividend Yield (%) | Annual profit growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradesco | 17.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 |
| Itaú Unibanco | 19.8 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 8.7 |
| Santander Brasil | 15.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| Banco do Brasil | 21.2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 10.2 |
This comparison reveals that Bradesco occupies the third position in profitability among the four largest Brazilian banks. Its dividend yield of 5.4% (R$1.02 per share in the last 12 months) exceeds the sector average of 4.8%, representing a return 51% higher than the current savings account and 26% above the Treasury Selic. Pocket Option highlights this yield as a strong point for investors seeking consistent passive income in the Brazilian market.
Technical analysis of Bradesco shares: Identified entry and exit points
Bradesco’s preferred (BBDC4) and common (BBDC3) shares reveal specific technical patterns that can determine the ideal time to buy Bradesco shares with the best risk-return ratio.
In the last 12 months, BBDC4 formed a well-defined lateral channel, oscillating between R$13.80 and R$16.50. Analysis of the last 90 days reveals:
- Main support tested three times at R$13.80-13.90, with volume 68% above average in support regions
- Critical resistance at R$16.50, rejected twice with decreasing volume (positive signal)
- Recent crossing of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (Golden Cross), formed on 03/24/2024, signaling potential trend change
- RSI (14) moving from oversold region (32) to neutrality (45), indicating momentum improvement
The identified technical patterns suggest a potentially favorable moment to buy Bradesco shares near the support of R$13.90, with stop loss adjusted at R$13.50 (-2.9%) and first target at R$15.20 (+9.3%), offering a risk-return ratio of 1:3.2. Pocket Option experts recommend staggered entries at levels R$14.20, R$14.00, and R$13.85 to dilute execution risk.
High probability chart patterns
Three specific chart patterns increase the probability of directional movements in Bradesco shares:
| Pattern | Implication | Historical probability of success | Appreciation potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double bottom at R$13.85 | Reversal from downtrend to uptrend in 3-5 weeks | 72% (based on the last 8 similar patterns) | +12% to +18% |
| Symmetrical triangle (convergence on 04/28) | Directional breakout by 05/15 | 83% probability of upside | +8% to +15% |
| Support at 200-day moving average | Maintenance of long-term trend | 91% effectiveness in the last 5 years | +6% to +10% in 30-45 days |
Fundamental analysis: Is it worth buying Bradesco shares based on fundamentals?
For medium and long-term investors, fundamental analysis is decisive. Bradesco’s indicators in April 2024 reveal specific signals:
- Current P/E of 6.8x is 20% below the historical average of 8.5x, indicating potential for revaluation of R$3.40 per share
- P/B of 1.2x represents a discount of 14.3% compared to the historical average of 1.4x
- Dividend Yield of 5.4% equals R$1.02 per share in the last 12 months, with a monthly distribution policy
- ROE of 17.2% exceeds the estimated cost of capital of 14.8%, generating positive economic value of 2.4 percentage points
These indicators, analyzed together with the perspective of 7.8% profit growth for 2024 (consensus of 14 analysts), suggest that buying Bradesco shares represents an opportunity for those seeking exposure to the Brazilian banking sector with a safety margin of approximately 18% relative to the estimated fair price (R$17.80).
| Indicator | Bradesco | Sector average | Difference (%) | Interpretation for investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8x | 7.2x | -5.6% | Moderate discount, revaluation potential |
| P/B | 1.2x | 1.4x | -14.3% | Significant discount relative to equity |
| Dividend Yield | 5.4% | 4.8% | +12.5% | Superior return in dividends (R$1.02 per share/year) |
| ROE | 17.2% | 16.5% | +4.2% | Slightly superior efficiency in generating profits |
The 5 pillars of Bradesco’s digital transformation: Measurable results
To determine if it’s worth buying Bradesco shares, it’s essential to evaluate how its digital transformation is generating concrete results. The bank invested R$7.8 billion in technology in 2023 (an increase of 36% compared to 2021), focusing on five strategic initiatives:
- Next: digital bank surpassed 12.7 million customers (41% growth in 12 months), with acquisition cost 78% lower than the traditional model
- BIA (Artificial Intelligence): processing 25 million monthly interactions, reduced average service time by 32% and saved R$235 million in operational costs
- Open Finance: developed 47 proprietary APIs with 8.3 million active consents, allowing acquisition of 325,000 new customers via open ecosystem
- inovaBRA: program connected the bank with 352 startups, implementing 83 solutions that generated R$420 million in new revenues
- Systems modernization: reduced overnight processing time by 42% and cut R$580 million in infrastructure costs
According to Pocket Option analysis, this transformation is already positively impacting operational efficiency, with the efficiency ratio improving from 43.4% to 41.8% in 12 months. Each percentage point represents approximate savings of R$1.1 billion annually, directly impacting profit and, consequently, the potential appreciation of shares.
| Digital Initiative | Investment (R$ millions) | Measurable Result | Annual Financial Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next (digital bank) | 1,850 | 12.7 million customers (+41% y.o.y.) | R$620 million in new revenues |
| BIA (Artificial Intelligence) | 980 | 25 million interactions/month (-32% in service time) | Savings of R$235 million |
| Open Finance | 730 | 8.3 million active consents | 325,000 new customers (R$180 million in revenues) |
| Partnerships with fintechs | 420 | 83 implemented solutions | R$420 million in new revenues |
How the Brazilian macroeconomy directly impacts Bradesco
For investors considering buying Bradesco shares, understanding the precise correlation between macroeconomic factors and the bank’s performance is fundamental:
The Selic effect on Bradesco’s margins
The Selic rate, currently at 10.75%, directly influences three components of Bradesco’s result. Each percentage point in the Selic represents an impact of approximately R$580 million on the quarterly result, distributed as follows:
| Interest Rate Scenario | Impact on Net Interest Margin | Impact on Delinquency | Net Effect on Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maintenance of Selic at 10.75% | Stability (+R$280 million/quarter) | Gradual reduction in delinquency (-0.2 p.p./quarter) | Positive of R$420 million/quarter |
| Reduction to 9.25% by December | Slight negative pressure (-R$150 million/quarter) | Acceleration in delinquency reduction (-0.4 p.p./quarter) | Positive of R$580 million/quarter |
| Increase to 12.25% (stress scenario) | Strong margin expansion (+R$420 million/quarter) | Increase in delinquency (+0.3 p.p./quarter) | Negative of R$180 million/quarter |
Besides interest rates, three other critical macroeconomic factors directly influence Bradesco’s performance:
- GDP Growth: each additional 1 percentage point in Brazilian GDP historically translates into a 2.7% expansion in Bradesco’s credit portfolio, adding approximately R$380 million to annual profit
- Inflation: IPCA above 5% pressures operational costs by approximately R$220 million per quarter, reducing margins
- Unemployment: each 1 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate improves delinquency by 0.18 percentage points, saving R$260 million in provisions annually
Specific strategies for investing in Bradesco shares in 2024
Based on the analyses presented, we identified four optimized strategies for different investor profiles interested in buying Bradesco shares:
| Investor Profile | Recommended Strategy | Suggested Allocation | Expected Return (12 months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Monthly accumulation focused on dividends: R$1,000 every 15th day, regardless of price | 3-5% of total assets | Dividends of 5.4% + potential appreciation of 8-12% |
| Moderate | Staggered purchases at supports: 30% at R$14.20, 30% at R$14.00, and 40% at R$13.85 | 5-10% of total assets | Dividends of 5.4% + potential appreciation of 15-20% |
| Aggressive | Leveraged purchase near main support with stop below R$13.60 | 10-15% of total assets | Dividends of 5.4% + potential appreciation of 20-25% |
| Trader | Swing trade operations between support (R$13.85) and first resistance (R$15.20) | 1-3% of assets per operation | Gains of 8-12% per cycle (estimate of 3-4 cycles/year) |
Pocket Option offers specific tools to implement these strategies, including price alerts for the key levels mentioned, return simulators with dividend reinvestment, and detailed analysis of quarterly results as soon as they are released, allowing tactical adjustments to the strategy according to the evolution of fundamentals.
For long-term investors, the strategy of scheduled monthly contributions (R$1,000/month for 5 years) in Bradesco shares would result in an estimated equity of R$83,450 considering reinvested dividends and average annual growth of 11.2%, according to projections based on historical performance adjusted to current perspectives.
5 specific risks for Bradesco and how the bank mitigates them
Before deciding if it’s worth buying Bradesco shares, it’s essential to understand the five main risks that the institution faces and its mitigation strategies:
- Digital competition: Bradesco loses 2.1% of its customer base annually to fintechs, but captured 3.7% of new customers via Next, resulting in a positive balance of 1.6%
- Sectoral delinquency: Exposure of R$86 billion to the real estate sector represents concentrated risk, mitigated by requiring 35% down payment and guarantees that cover 142% of the loan value
- Spread compression: Reduction of 0.8 percentage points in spreads in 12 months, compensated by a 12% increase in volume and an 8% reduction in fixed costs
- Structural rigidity: 78,000 employees and 2,850 branches represent high fixed costs, partially mitigated by closing 428 branches since 2022 and digitizing 64% of internal processes
- Currency exposure: 17% of international operations generate volatility in results, mitigated by a hedging policy that covers 85% of exposure
| Risk | Probability | Potential Impact | Mitigation Strategy | Mitigation Effectiveness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital disruption | High (80%) | -15% in customer base in 3 years | Next captured 12.7 million customers, compensating losses | High (75% of risk mitigated) |
| Economic recession | Moderate (35%) | +2.5 p.p. in delinquency | Provisioning of 218% and more conservative credit mix | Moderate (60% of risk mitigated) |
| Regulatory changes | High (90%) | -8% in service revenues | Development of 14 new unregulated revenue lines | Moderate (55% of risk mitigated) |
| Margin pressure | High (85%) | -0.8 p.p. in banking spread | Cut of R$2.3 billion in costs and volume increase | High (80% of risk mitigated) |
Conclusion: Is it worth buying Bradesco shares in 2024?
After a comprehensive analysis of the multiple factors that influence Bradesco, we conclude that its shares present a favorable risk-return ratio in the current scenario, particularly for three specific investor profiles.
Bradesco demonstrates five fundamental strengths: valuation 20% below historical average (P/E 6.8x vs. 8.5x), attractive dividend yield of 5.4% (R$1.02 per share annually), delinquency on a downward trajectory (4.2% and decreasing trend), digital transformation with measurable results (savings of R$1.1 billion in operational costs), and balanced exposure to sectors of the Brazilian economy with the greatest growth potential in 2024-2025.
For investors seeking income and moderate growth, buying Bradesco shares at current levels (R$14.00-R$14.50) represents an opportunity with significant safety margin. The recommended strategy combines regular contributions with taking advantage of corrections for accumulation at well-defined technical supports (R$13.80-R$13.90), aiming for a total return (dividends + appreciation) between 14% and 18% over the next 12 months.
Pocket Option provides specific tools for Brazilian investors interested in Bradesco shares, including personalized alerts for the mentioned technical levels (R$13.85, R$14.20, R$15.20, and R$16.50), return calculators with dividend reinvestment, and detailed analysis of quarterly results as soon as they are released, allowing tactical adjustments to the strategy according to the evolution of fundamentals.
FAQ
What is the best time to buy Bradesco shares?
The best time depends on your investment strategy. For long-term investors, moments of significant drop in share price may represent good opportunities, especially when the bank's fundamentals remain solid. For traders, technical points such as confirmed supports or resistance breakouts can be relevant signals. Pocket Option provides updated technical analyses that can help identify these moments.
How are Bradesco's dividends distributed?
Bradesco traditionally distributes monthly dividends, with a minimum payout of 30% of adjusted net income, as determined in its bylaws. In practice, the bank has distributed higher percentages, often between 40-50% of profit. Dividends are paid to both common shares (BBDC3) and preferred shares (BBDC4), with preferred shares usually receiving 10% higher values.
What is the difference between investing in BBDC3 and BBDC4?
BBDC3 are common shares, which confer voting rights at shareholder meetings. BBDC4 are preferred shares, which do not give voting rights, but offer priority in dividend distribution (generally 10% higher than common shares) and tend to have greater liquidity in the market. For investors focused on dividends and who do not prioritize participation in company decisions, BBDC4 is usually the most common choice.
Are Bradesco shares suitable for stock market beginners?
Yes, Bradesco shares are considered suitable for beginners due to their high liquidity, which facilitates buying and selling without major impacts on price, and the relative predictability of the banking business. In addition, the regular dividend policy offers a flow of income that can be interesting for those who are starting out. Pocket Option offers specific educational materials to assist beginning investors interested in Brazilian bank stocks.
How can Bradesco's digital transformation affect the value of its shares?
Successful digital transformation can positively impact the value of Bradesco shares in several ways: reduction of operational costs (fewer physical branches and more efficient processes), increase in customer base through digital platforms like Next, development of new revenue sources, and improvement in customer experience, reducing churn rate. Success in these initiatives may lead to a reassessment of the bank's P/E multiple by the market, potentially boosting the share price in the medium and long term.